5-B. DISCUSS METHODOLOGY USED TO PROJECT JURISDICTIONS FUTURE

WATER NEEDS

Meeting Date: February 2, 2004 Budgeted: N/A

Program/Line Item No.: N/A

Staff Contact: Stephanie Pintar Cost Estimate: N/A

General Counsel Approval: N/A

Committee Recommendation: N/A

CEQA Compliance: N/A

SUMMARY: Different methodologies have been used by the eight jurisdictions in the District to estimate future water needs. Most recently, the District undertook two studies to identify water needs on vacant legal buildable lots of record and vacant buildable lots of record on improved parcels. The legal lot studies used standard factors to estimate water needs for each of the jurisdictions based on vacant lots identified using aerial photos. The jurisdictions participated in both of the studies, but the second study was not completed due to lack of adequate orthophotography for the unincorporated areas of Monterey County.

As the Board begins to search for new sources for water supply, it is in the District’s interest to encourage a standardized method for use by the jurisdictions to estimate future water needs. The District, with the buy-in of the jurisdictions, should work to establish a firm and defendable basis for estimating future water demand.

RECOMMENDATION: The Board should direct the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) to work toward a common methodology for estimating future water demand and return with a recommendation within a prescribed period of time. Some potential factors to consider could be:

1. Historical average actual use by type of use based on Cal-Am consumption reports;

2. Use reasonable estimates based on “average” use densities;

3. Use maximum potential density;

4. Limit future demand estimates to existing legal lots of records as of January 1, 1997 (the date used in the previous legal lot studies);

5. Estimate future needs based on potential development as allowed by the current General Plans;

6. Other

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